Sunday, October 31, 2010

Spending Review 2010: Data Updates

On October 20, 2010, HM Treasury published a Spending Review for UK public spending for fiscal years 2011-12 up through 2015-16. The Spending Review tabulated planned spending for central government departments for each fiscal year.

ukpublicspending.co.uk cannot update its data directly with numbers from the Spending Review because its numbers are not categorized by department. Instead they are categorized by spending function (using the UN COFOG methodology) in the annual Public Expenditure Statistical Analysis (PESA) published by HM Treasury. Usually PESA publishes planned spending by function for the current fiscal year and the next two years. But PESA 2009 and PESA 2010 only detailed planned spending for years up to 2010-11.

At ukpublicspending.co.uk we expect PESA 2011 to include future years as normal, but until then (May or June 2011) we are publishing "guesstimates" of planned future year spending by making projections of the major spending functions based on our interpretation of the Spending Review.

Here is the methodology used to come up with our "guesstimates" using 2011 numbers for ukpublicspending.co.uk and the "plans and forecasts" in Table A.3: Public Sector Current Expenditure and Table A.4: Public Sector Gross Investment in the Spending Review

1. General Public Services. Use 2011 number less Central Government Gross Interest less International Development and project using rate of change in CLG Local Government plus Cabinet Office plus Small and Independent Bodies. For Interest use Central government gross debt interest; for International development use International Development.

2. Defence Use 2011 number and project using rate of change in Defence plus Single Intelligence Account.

3. Public Order and Safety Use 2011 number and project using rate of change in Home Office plus Justice plus Law Officers' Departments.

4. Economic Affairs Use 2011 number less transport and project using rate of change in Business, Innovation and Skills. For transport, use 2011 numbers and project using rate of change in Transport.

5. Environmental Protection Use 2011 number and project using rate of change in Energy and Climate Change and Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

6. Housing and Community Amenities Use numbers for CLG Communities.

7. Health Use 2011 number and project using rate of change in NHS (health).

8. Recreation, Culture and Religion Use 2011 number and project using rate of change in Culture, Media and Sport.

9. Education Use 2011 number and project using rate of change in Education.

10. Social Protection For Pensions, use 2011 number for Pensions and project using rate of change in Work and Pensions. For Welfare, use 2011 number for Welfare and project using rate of change in HM Revenue and Customs.

Other Spending Use 2011 number and project using rate of change in Net expenditure transfers to EU.

Total Public Spending. Use Total value directly.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

July 7 Update: Country Spending, GDP Update

Country Spending: Starting today ukpublicspending.co.uk is publishing country spending for the UK. That means you can now view government spending on services at the subfunction level broken out for England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Data starts in 2003 and ends in 2010.

GDP Update: We have updated our GDP numbers for the UK. That includes the actual number for 2009 as reported by measuringworth.com. Also, we have updated the real GDP reported by measuringworth.com from 1692 to the present, using 2005 prices as reference.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

July 2 Update: PESA 2010

On July 1, 2010, HM Treasury published its Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses (PESA) for 2010. ukpublicspending.co.uk uses PESA's tables of public spending at the "sub-function" level as its major data source for UK public spending.

ukpublicspending.co.uk has now updated its spending tables using data from PESA 2010. The update includes outturn spending data for 2008-09, estimated outturn data for 2000-10, and plans data for 2010-11. ukpublicspending.co.uk uses PESA's Table 6.4 for Central Government expenditure, Table 7.4 for Local Authority expenditure, and Table 8.3 for Public Corporation capital expenditure.

Since HM Treasury does not provide plans estimates for Local Authority spending, ukpublicspending.co.uk provides "guesstimates" instead. This is done by extending the percentage increase in spending between 2008-09 and 2009-10 for each sub-function for the plans year.

Normally, HM Treasury would have supplied, in PESA 2010, plans spending estimates for three out-years, 2010-11, 2011-12, and 2012-13, instead of one. But this year it did not. The Coalition government is conducting a spending review that is expected to result in substantial spending cuts in the out-years. Presumably these cuts will be detailed in PESA 2011.