Sunday, December 25, 2016

Revision to March 2016 Public Revenue Data

On December 25, 2016 we revised the source for UK public revenue for the period 1947 to the present in order to display more detailed revenue data.

Revenue outturn data still comes from the Office for National Statistics' March 2016 Public Sector Finances report using a spreadsheet file labeled "Public Sector Finances time series dataset". Now we have increased the number of revenue data items from 24 to 35. Mainly the new items provide more detail for income taxes and production taxes, as follows:

Selected Previous Revenue Items Selected New Revenue Items
CNMCU - Taxes on income and wealthCLIBR - Income tax
CN445 - Corporation tax
CHZS7 - Taxes on capital
CNMBY - Taxes on productionCBKST - Stamp taxes on shares
CCDDZ - Vehicle excise duties
CEKED - Vehicle excise duties paid by business
CGTAO - Tobacco duties
CMF6V - Alcohol duties
CCUKY - Business rates
CNZGF - Value added tax
CCUDG - Fuel duties
CMM9F - Stamp duty land tax
CMF6W - Other taxes

Revenue forecast data for 2015-16 to 2017-18 used to come from the Office of Budget Responsibility's March 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook report using 18 revenue items from table "2.8 Current receipts" in a spreadsheet file labeled "Economic and fiscal outlook supplementary fiscal tables - March 2016".  Now we are using Table 4.6 Current Receipts from the same spreadsheet and extracting 36 revenue items.


Thursday, July 21, 2016

PESA 2016 Update

On July 21, 2016, HM Treasury published its Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses (PESA) for 2016. ukpublicspending.co.uk uses the PESA tables of public spending at the "sub-function" level as its major data source for UK public spending.

ukpublicspending.co.uk has now updated its spending tables using data from PESA 2016. The update includes outturn spending data for 2015-16, and plans data for 2016-17 through 2019-20. ukpublicspending.co.uk uses PESA's Table 6.4 for Central Government expenditure, Table 7.4 for Local Authority expenditure, and Table 8.3 for Public Corporation capital expenditure.

Since HM Treasury does not provide plans estimates for Local Authority spending, ukpublicspending.co.uk provides "guesstimates" instead. This is done by extending the percentage increase in spending between 2014-15 and 2015-16 for each sub-function for the plans year. It is assumed that local authority spending reductions will not carry through to plans years.

Country and Region spending has been updated up to 2014-15. These are obtained from Chapters 9 and 10 in the PESA document.

Saturday, April 23, 2016

UK GDP and Public Debt Update for 2016

On April 23, 2016 ukpublicspending.co.uk updated UK GDP and public debt outturn and forecasts released with the HM Treasury Budget in March 2015.

Recent and forecast GDP comes from the UK Office of Budget Responsibility's Economic and fiscal outlook report, using tables 1.1 and 1.2 in a spreadsheet file labeled "Economic and fiscal outlook supplementary economy tables". UK GDP previous to 2010 comes from Measuring Worth. The data goes back to 1692.

Public sector net debt, outturn and forecast, comes from a spreadsheet called "Aggregates (£bn)" in the Public Finances Databank at the Office of Budget Responsibility.

UK Public Revenue 2016 Update

On March 16, 2016 The Office of Budget Responsibility published its forecast for UK government revenue and current budget deficit. On April 21 the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published its annual Public Sector Finances report. On April 23, 2016 we updated ukpublicrevenue.co.uk with the new public finance data.

Revenue forecast data comes from the Office of Budget Responsibility's March 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook report, using table "2.8 Current receipts" in a spreadsheet file labeled "Economic and fiscal outlook supplementary fiscal tables - March 2016". Forecast revenue data extends from 2015-16 to 2017-18.

Current budget deficit forecast data comes from the Office of Budget Responsibility's March 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook report, using table "2.44 Components of Net Borrowing" in a spreadsheet file labeled "Economic and fiscal outlook supplementary fiscal tables - March 2016". Forecast revenue data extends from 2015-16 to 2017-18.

Revenue outturn data comes from the Office for National Statistics' March 2016 Public Sector Finances report using a spreadsheet file labeled "Public Sector Finances Supplementary Tables". Outturn revenue data now extends from 1692 to 2015-16.

UPDATE 12/18/2016

Look here for ONS Public Sector Finances.

Data Update Schedule

Here's a table that tells you when data was last updated, and when to expect fresh updates from ukpublicspending.co.uk.

MonData TypeLast Update + LinkNext Update
MarUK Revenue Forecast OBRMar 2017FY17 dataMar 2018FY18 data
MarUK Deficit Forecast OBRMar 2017FY17 dataMar 2018FY18 data
MarUK Debt OBRMar 2017FY17 dataMar 2018FY18 data
MarUK GDP OBRMar 2017FY17 dataMar 2018FY18 data
AprUK Revenue Outturn ONSApr 2016FY16 dataApr 2017FY17 data
JulyUK Spending HMT-PESAJuly 2016FY16 dataJuly 2017FY17 data

LAST UPDATE: 3/27/2017

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

UK Deficit Page Added

On January 12, 2016, we added a page showing an analysis of the UK Deficit, including the deficit right now, a review of deficits in the past 10 years, and a chart of the deficit since just after World War II.

But what is the deficit?

  • The Office of Budget Responsibility in its Fiscal Supplementary Tables computes the "current budget deficit" as (current expenditure less current receipts less depreciation). For 2015 this comes out as (669.3 - 646.9 - 37.4), in billions of pounds.
  • On ukpublicspending.co.uk we compute total spending as (current spending + capital spending). So we would compute the deficit as (total spending less total revenue).
  • Or, you can figure that what matters is how much the UK national debt went up over the year. For 2016, we might compute this as (UK Net Debt for 2016 less UK Net Debt for 2015). For 2016 this comes out as (1532.9 - 1479.4) in billions of pounds.

You can see each of these measures of the deficit advertised on the UK Deficit page. Plus our usual array of charts. If you click on the chart number, e.g., D.01t, you will get to view the chart page, with associated data.

For now, the "current budget deficit" series on ukpublicspending.co.uk, based on the UK data series "JW2T", goes back to 1947.